A Dangerous Era?

Historically, violence spikes are typically due to one underlying cause. 

Think the crack cocaine wars of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Or the explosion of untreated mental health issues and isolation of the 2000s.

But what if we’re entering an era where violence spikes are being driven, not by one, but by two completely different underlying sources?

And what does that mean for safety?

Hints of Two Different Communal Violence Drivers

Another horrific violent attack. This time in Boulder, Colorado. 

The attacker used a home made flame thrower and molotov cocktails to attack people peacefully calling for the release of the Israeli hostages held for over 600 days by Hamas.

This attack followed on the heels of the attack at the Palm Springs fertility clinic, and the murders at the Capital jewish Museum. You could also add the attack on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s residence, and the assassination of the United Health CEO too.

This tragedy, like the others, was driven by grievance and carried out to further an agenda. And this type of violence is driving a greater amount of America’s violence.

And these attacks are in turn, likely to lead to other tragic attacks. Once the door opens to this type of violence, other people see it as a viable option for addressing their grievances too.

But there’s another driver of violence out there too. Less high profile. But it’s rising too.

And that’s what can make this era more challenging when it comes to violence prevention.

We are also in an era of rising economic stress and uncertainty. And that means people are going to be more reactive. And historically violence rises right along with rising stress levels because of that reactivity. 

As a result, we may be entering an era where grievance driven violence, and economic stress related, reactive, violence occur simultaneously. 

Why This Era Feels Different

I conducted a lot of criminal defense investigations for attorneys during the 30 years that I did litigation investigations. Different eras had different drivers of violence.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s drive by shootings impacted entire communities and led to the passing of a major violent crime bill.

Violence at that time was connected to drug territories and the gangs that controlled them.

In 2000s, we saw an uptick in violence connected to untreated mental health issues and increased isolation. Violence related to these factors was reactive. Happening quickly, and without warning.

Grievance based violence happens differently. With grievance based violence, attackers take the time to plan, and to carry out their attack. They’ll even spend the time to learn the different processes needed to carry out their attacks.

It’s the deliberative nature of grievance based violence that makes it hard to see it coming.

And yet, despite these differences, we might well be on the cusp of seeing both grievance based, and reactivity based, violence impact our safety simultaneously.

A Longer Arc

The Boulder, Colorado attacker began planning for his attack a year earlier. He initially took firearms training through a concealed carry class, but was blocked from buying a firearm because of his immigration status.

But that setback didn’t dissuade him from his objective.

He researched other ways to commit a mass act of violence and based upon his research learned how to make a homemade flame thrower and molotov cocktails.

He intentionally delayed putting his attack plan in motion until after his daughter graduated from high school. 

He also examined ways that he could be at the location for his anticipated attack that would not draw attention to himself or his incendiary weapons. He settled on disguising himself as a gardener, complete with a reflective vest, as the best way to blend in.

He was deliberative and patient making it very difficult to uncover what he was up to until he initiated his attack.

A Reactive Time Too

The signs of a greater sense of economic stress are there too. And widespread economic stress raises the likelihood of violence driven by reactivity.

There are now over 7 million people who are unemployed in the US. The most since 2017. Small business optimism surveys have tanked. As have consumer sentiment surveys. 

In earnings calls, the Dollar Store, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, large discount chains, have identified a significant economic change among their shoppers. Affluent shoppers are now shopping at their stores at much higher levels than typical. And they’re shopping there to purchase necessities.

Economists are quick to point out that “hard” economic data is not showing a stressed consumer. But, who are you going to listen to, the consumers, and businesses already experiencing major changes, or lagging data?

The people are speaking loudly and clearly. To ignore that is unwise at best.

What Does This Mean for Violence Prevention

Agenda based grievance driven attacks are kept underwraps until they’re launched. So literally, you don’t know it’s happening until it’s happening.

Reactivity driven violence often escalates without warning, turning violent before there’s any chance to prevent it. 

As a result, the best chance for safety with either or both situations comes with recognizing that an attack has gotten, or is just about to get underway.

And then changing the dynamic of the attack as quickly as possible, forcing the attacker to recalibrate. That’s when the opportunitity to exit, or to engage occurs.

That doesn’t provide a lot of time, but you just need enough time to act.

Stopping these types of attacks requires the ability to exit the attack area, or to intervene in the attack. There’s no talking the attacker down from committing the attack.

As a result focus on:

•  Situational awareness. The earlier you recognize that a risk to safety is developing the more options you have to address that safety risk and to avoid being physically harmed. These types of attacks provide a limited window to recognize the safety risk and initiate a response, whether it’s run and hide, or to engage.
•  Changing the dynamics of an attack. These types of attacks are carefully planned by the attacker, so anything you can do to put a hurdle into that plan the more opportunities you have to survive them. Forcing the attacker to recalibrate something that he’s devoted so much thought and time to accomplish is not easy.
•  Self-defense/Defense of others. Sometimes you got no choice but to engage physically with the attacker. Any opportunity to do so can save a life, including your own. But you have to know how to do so safely and effectively.

California doesn’t just require that you develop a workplace violence prevention plan. You’ve got to train your employees too. My free training on Demystifying Strategies to Avoid Physical Harm will help you navigate the most important; yet, least understood training requirement in California’s workplace violence prevention law.